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本文摘要:Its easy to get jaded when you cover the technology industry. Silicon Valleys giants are constantly belching wisps of marshmallow-thick hype, and any reporter looking to cover the beat has to be constantly on guard against unproven claims about this


Its easy to get jaded when you cover the technology industry. Silicon Valleys giants are constantly belching wisps of marshmallow-thick hype, and any reporter looking to cover the beat has to be constantly on guard against unproven claims about this or that algorithmically abetted amazing advance.报导科技产业新闻很更容易令人深感心烦。硅谷的巨头们总是展开着天花乱坠的宣传,常有人声称某项技术革新经数学计算证明意义根本性,而对于这些并未被证实的言论,每个跟踪产业动态的记者都必需时刻保持警惕。

So when Christopher Mims of Quartz recently declared 2013 to be a lost year for tech--one in which, he says, the industry produced nothing of great value--I could see where he was coming from. I feel the same way some days; when Im covering some new me-too social-media product or a great new way to target ads, I hang my head in despair.所以,当Quartz通讯记者米姆斯(Christopher Mims)将2013年称为“科技领域的重生之年”,相提并论科技产业这一年中没生产出有富裕价值的产品时,我能解读他为何得此结论。有的时候我也不会这么想要。当我在报导某款新的(过度社交化)媒体产品,或者一种新的定位广告的方式时,我都失望得坐不开头来。

But then I read a couple of rebuttals to Mims by Daring Fireballs John Gruber and Om Malik, of Gigaom. They argued that the industrys biggest advances have occurred beneath the medias radar, and that the industry, as a whole, is anything but stagnant.但之后,我写Daring Fireball博主格鲁伯(John Gruber)和Gigaom创始人马利克(Om Malik)对米姆斯观点的驳斥。他们指出科技产业仅次于的变革潜藏于媒体的视线之外,整个产业毕竟停滞不前。I side with these more positive takes. Heres my roundup of reasons to break out of your tech funk and be optimistic about tech in 2014.我尊重这些更为正面的观点。

我指出应该萌生负面情绪,以悲观的态度看来2014年的科技产业。下面我将详细陈述我的理由:First, stop clamoring for the next big thing. Were you disappointed, once again, that Apple didnt release something amazing and new this year--a TV or a smartwatch, say? Were you bummed that there were few revolutionary features on the latest smartphones? Have you concluded that the tech business is boring, that there isnt any more innovation, that we live in uninteresting times?首先,不要再行嚷嚷着呼唤“下一代最出色产品”的来临。今年苹果公司(Apple Inc. ,AAPL)没公布什么新型产品(比如说电视或者智能手表),你深感沮丧了吗?新款智能手机没过于多革命性的新性能,你沮丧了吗?你否已一口咬定科技产业了无生趣,将会再行辈出新的技术革新?你否指出我们已身处一个百无聊赖的时代中呢?If so, Ive got two words for you: Grow up.如果答案是认同的,我送来你两个字:愚蠢。

I, too, constantly yearn for mind-blowing new tech. But Ive been getting tired of the claim that just because we havent seen something on the order of the smartphone or tablet in the last few years, the tech industry can no longer innovate. The problem with this argument is that the touchscreen smartphone (and its cousin the tablet) was a singularly novel, industry-shattering device, and were unlikely to see anything as groundbreaking in a generation.我也总是期望需要有新的卓越技术经常出现。但是意味着因为近年来没经常出现类似于智能手机、平板电脑的新产品,就有人断言科技产业已无法之后创意。这种说道法令我生厌。

其问题在于,触屏式智能手机(以及功能近似于的平板电脑)是一种极为新的颍、动摇了整个产业的电子设备,而我们在这一代产品中不有可能再行看见如此开天辟地的产品。The smartphone and the tablet *are* the next big things, and we act like spoiled children when we claim that they somehow arent enough. Most future advances will simply be improvements or expansions on these basic technologies--ways to make smartphones and tablets cheaper, more powerful, smaller, lighter, and to let them control and connect with an ever-large slice of our lives.智能手机和平板电脑本身就是新一代的最出色产品,可我们却像被宠坏的小孩子一样叫唤着这还过于。未来大多数技术变革主要将环绕这些基础技术展开改进和扩展,例如让智能手机和平板电脑更加低廉,性能更加强劲,更加小轻巧,并将更大范围地管理、相连我们生活。

In 2013 we saw several such innovations. Googles Motorola subsidiary released a really good phone, the Moto G, that sells for $199 without a contract--the first of several devices that will radically expand access to mobile phones. Meanwhile Apples top-of-the-line devices came with an incredible processor, the A7, which proved that mobile devices can approach the power of desktop-class PCs. I was blown away, too, by the growth of apps that are now rewiring our worlds--apps such as ride-sharing service Uber or the robotic slot-car racer Anki Drive, which show the potential for our phones to transform the physical world.2013年亲眼了一些此类创意成果的兴起。谷歌(Google Inc. Cl A ,GOOG)旗下的摩托罗拉(Motorola)发售了性能出众的Moto G,这款裸机售价仅有199美元的手机完全地拓宽了人们对手机的接触面。与此同时,苹果的新款高端设备组装了高效卓越的A7处理器,使得移动设备均可构建台式个人电脑的计算能力。

移动应用于数量的发展壮大也令人倍感赞叹,例如叫车应用于Uber和智能轨道赛车Anki Drive,都莫不彰明显智能手机改建真实世界的极大潜力。As the analyst Benedict Evans has argued, the true revolution in mobile computing is one of scale; were going from an Internet controlled by PCs to one controlled by three billion to five billion phones. No device on the horizon--not the long-awaited TV made by Apple, not Google Glass, not a smartwatch--will be as exciting as what smartphones and tablets hold in store for us. So lets stop yearning for new stuff just for noveltys sake. The next big thing is already here, its in your pocket, and its incredible.正如分析师埃文斯(Benedict Evans)所明确提出的,移动计算出来确实的革命是规模的革命;我们于是以从由个人电脑掌控的互联网改向由30至50亿部手机掌控的互联网。将要问世的设备中,无论是人们期待已久的苹果电视还是谷歌眼镜或智能手表,没哪一种需要像智能手机和平板电脑那样令人兴奋。因此不要再行只是为了新奇而执着新的设备。

下一个根本性产品早已不存在,它就在你的口袋里,十分不可思议。Second, privacy is no longer an afterthought. Ive already argued that the disappearing-message app Snapchat was the most interesting technology of 2013 because it paved the way for services that dont save all our data by default. The larger message of Snapchat, though, is that privacy isnt dead.第二,隐私早已仍然是事后才想起的问题。

我曾多次明确提出,阅后即焚的应用于Snapchat是2013年最有意思的技术,因为它给不配置文件存储我们所有数据的设备铺平了道路。而Snapchat传送出有的更加最重要信息是,隐私并非仍然最重要。For years, tech giants have given lip service to privacy. Its very important to us! they insist while slurping up mountains of your data. But the industry hasnt spent much time looking at privacy as a place for innovation, as a feature that users will care about when they choose apps or services.多年来,科技巨头仍然口头允诺维护隐私。

它们一旁声称“隐私对我们十分最重要!”一旁搜集你的大量数据。但科技行业仍然没花费过于多时间将隐私作为一个可以创意的地方、作为用户在自由选择应用于或服务时会在乎的一个功能来实地考察。Thanks to Snapchat, revelations about the National Security Agency, and an increased fear of living in a panopticon, that will thankfully begin to change in 2014. Watch for an avalanche of apps that take privacy seriously--whether they delete data by default, keep your data local, or limit the scope of their sharing.不受Snapchat的经常出现、美国国家安全局(National Security Agency)监控活动泄露、以及人们日益忧虑自己生活在全方位监狱中的现象影响,上述情况在2014年将开始发生变化。

让我们期望推崇隐私的应用于如雪崩般经常出现――无论其采行的方式是配置文件移除数据、以本地方式留存数据还是容许数据共享的范围。Third, enterprise tech is interesting, finally. For years, business software was a dead-end for innovation, dominated as it was by Microsoft, Oracle, and other entrenched incumbents. Now thats changing. In 2013 several alternatives rose to challenge old-school business tech--like Quip, a clever new word-processing app, or Boxs collaboration software, Box Notes--and I suspect this trend will continue this year.第三,针对企业的科技也再一有意思一起。

多年来,商业软件是创意的死胡同,被微软公司(Microsoft)、甲骨文(Oracle)和其他根深蒂固的巨头所主导。现在这种情况正在转变。2013年,几个替代产品兴起,对传统的商业科技产品包含了挑战,比如一款精妙的新文字处理应用于Quip,或Box发售的协作软件Box Notes。

我猜中这种趋势还将在今年持续。One enterprise advance Im looking forward to: The rise of companies looking to bring cloud-based services to specific, specialized markets--also known as vertical software-as-a-service businesses. Im talking about firms like Veeva Systems, which makes a cloud-based sales tool for the health care industry, and which successfully launched an IPO in the fall. Watch for other startups aimed at specific industries--law firms, hospitality, health care--to get really big, without anyone noticing, in 2014.我期望的一个企业发展是,侧重将云服务引进明确、专门化市场(又称横向软营)的公司蓬勃发展。

我说道的是像Veeva Systems这样的公司,它为医疗保健行业获取基于云服务的销售工具,并在去年秋季顺利展开了首次公开发表IPO(IPO)。2014年,针对明确行业(如律所、酒店、医疗)的其他初创企业未来将会悄悄构建扩展。Last but not least, robots arent necessarily coming for your job. Its been a cliché in the Valley for years that machines will replace humans across a wide variety of job types. Its been a cliché in the Valley for years that machines will replace humans across a wide variety of job types. But while artificial intelligence is still advancing at a furious pace, I was thrilled that AI is augmenting, rather than superseding, humans. Look how Redfin used tech to create better real-estate agents rather than replace them, or how the app Duolingo crowdsources human intelligence to produce better translations than machines are capable of.最后某种程度最重要的是,机器人不一定会代替你的工作。硅谷多年来的一个陈词滥调是,机器将在多种类型的工作上代替人类。

但随着人工智能的发展如火如荼,我为之激动的是它于是以沦为人类的补足而非替代。可以想到Redfin如何利用科技打造出更佳的房地产经纪人,而不是代替他们;也可以想到Duolingo应用于如何通过对人类智能积极开展“众包在”来获取比机器更佳的翻译成。I think were witnessing the dawn of a new paradigm in machine-human cooperation: Combining machine intelligence with biological intelligence will always trump one or the other. Machines make us better, and we make machines better. Theres still hope for us. Welcome to the bionic future.我指出,我们正在见证人机合作新的范式的曙光:机器智能与生物智能的融合认同不会比二者中的任何一个更加高明。


青睐回到仿生学的未来。Do you have any to add? Id love to hear from you about the best and worst tech trends of the year.你们还有什么可补足的吗?我乐意听见你们对于年度最佳和最好科技趋势的观点。